Six reasons why the BJP might win Bihar elections

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president Amit Shah said at a rally in Patna on Monday that the National Democratic Alliance would win a majority of the seats that went to polls in the first two phases earlier this month in Bihar. Shah claimed the party would win 28 to 32 of the 49 seats from Bihar Election Phase-I, and 20 to 24 of the 32 seats voted for in Phase-II.

Senior BJP leaders are convinced that its alliance will surprise naysayers, just like the party did with its performance in Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha elections, and then in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana Assembly polls. Indeed, they insist the party will turn in an equally splendid performance in the remaining three phases of voting in Bihar.

Voters wait in queue to cast their vote during second phase of Bihar elections at Gaya

So, what explains the BJP’s confidence? Here are six reasons why the party is so gung-ho about its performance:

1) Cadre and resources: The BJP claims to have over 600,000 workers, 10 workers each for the more than 60,000 polling booths. The five-phased polling also gives it the advantage of re-deploying these workers from areas where polling is over. Its membership drive had notched up 9.6 million members in Bihar — a seventh of Bihar’s 68 million electorate. Add to this an estimated 70,000 Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh workers from across the country and enormous resources at the command of the alliance. This cadre strength is helping the BJP not only mobilise its voters more efficiently on polling days but more effectively spread its message to the remotest of villages. In contrast, the Grand Alliance is a rag-tag coalition with little synergy. Even Janata Dal (United) and Rashtriya Janata Dal insiders speak of workers that are liable to switch loyalties for reasons other than political commitment.

2) Haryana model and anti-Lalu vote: The BJP believes its ‘jungle raj’ campaign has struck a chord. Only the Muslims, Yadavs and Kurmis, who account for 35 per cent, are with the ‘Grand Alliance’ while the remaining 65 per cent will vote for BJP-led alliance, it believes. The BJP calls this its ‘Haryana model’, where it had succeeded in consolidating all other castes against the dominant Jats in the 2014 Assembly polls.

3) Perfect patchwork of caste alliances: BJP strategists think they have stitched together a perfect alliance of castes, with the 15 per cent upper castes supporting the BJP, eight per cent Kushwahas behind their leader — Rashtriya Loktantrik Samata Party’s Upendra Kushwaha — the evenly distributed five per cent Paswans with Ram Vilas Paswan and rest of the 10 to 11 per cent Mahadalits with former Bihar chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi. It also estimates that the majority of the 30 per cent Extremely Backward Castes, comprising 114 castes, will also support its alliance.

4) Narendra Modi: The prime minister’s popularity is still undiminished. The large crowds that have turned up at his dozen election rallies are evidence of this. The BJP estimates the ‘Modi effect’ will help it increase its vote share in Bihar from the 38.5 per cent that its alliance received in the 2014 multi-polar Lok Sabha contest. The BJP needs a vote share of at least 43 to 44 per cent to win Bihar in what is now essentially a two-horse race. It hopes to beat the trend of failing to match its vote share of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls in subsequent state elections in Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, and Delhi. Incidentally, its only defeat — drubbing, in fact — since 2014 came where its main rival was a credible non-Congress party: In Delhi against the Aam Aadmi Party in February.

5) Women voters: The high turnout of women in the first two phases is thought to be a vote for Modi’s promise of security and development.

6) Beef: The BJP thinks it has Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad on the run for his remarks about eating beef, forcing the former Bihar chief minister to clarify them at each of his rallies. This, it believes, has also neutralised whatever damage the party suffered because of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat’s remarks on reviewing the caste-based reservation policy.

There is hope the Left parties and Third Front alliance that the Samajwadi Party leads will eat into the votes of the Grand Alliance. The BJP has a well-oiled team of strategists that have undertaken a course correction after realising the ‘Bihar versus Bahari (or outsider) campaign of its rivals could be getting traction because it over-projected Modi and Shah. It has now put up more hoardings of its local leaders like Sushil Modi, Rajiv Pratap Rudy, Nand Kishore Yadav, Ravi Shankar Prasad, and others.

Article Source: Business Standard

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Bihar elections: First phase of Assembly poll begins in 49 constituencies

The first of five voting phases in the high-stakes Bihar election began today with voting starting at 7 a.m in 49 seats, spread over 10 districts, amid elaborate security arrangements. In this phase, a total of 1,35,72,339 voters will elect MLAs to 49 Assembly seats for which 583 candidates, including 54 women, are in the fray.

The polling will be held between 7 a.m and 3 p.m in nine constituencies - Tarapur, Jamalpur, Suryagraha, Rajauli (SC), Govindpur, Sikandara (SC), Jamui, Jhajha and Chakai. In four constituencies - Alauli (SC), Beldaur, Katoria (ST), Belhar - voting will end at 4 p.m. The polling for the remaining 36 constituencies will be held between 7 a.m and 5 p.m. The duration of polling hours in 13 Assembly seats have been shortened on the basis of assessment of law and order situation with all these constituencies falling in Naxal-hit areas, Additional Chief Electoral Officer (ACEO) R Laxmanan said.

Bihar elections - First phase of Assembly poll begins in 49 constituencies

Of the total electors, there are 72,37,253 male, 63,17,602 female and 405 third gender, he said.

Among the break-up of seats being contested by different political parties in the first phase, the BSP leads the pack with 41 candidates, followed by BJP (27), RJD (17), LJP (13), Congress (8) and RLSP (6).

Among the left front constituents, the CPI has fielded 25 candidates followed by the CPI-M at 12.

As many as 13,212 polling stations have been set up for the first phase for which 63,624 polling personnel have been deployed, he said. Laxmanan said that 1.20 lakh personnel of Central Paramilitary Forces have been deployed to ensure free and fair polls adding that every polling station will be manned by a CPF personnel.

Out of the total number of 13,212 polling stations, 7,384 are tagged as critical and 2,255 are Left-Wing Extremists-hit. He said that five helicopters, including three Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have been deployed for air surveillance during polling. The number of mounted police force to be used for patrolling stands at 50, while 33 motor boats have been pressed into service for riverine petrolling.

As many as 935 video cameras and 339 android mobile phones have been put into use to ensure free and fair poll, the ACEO said.

Article Source: Business Standard

Bihar Election - Lalu Prasad provoking disaffection by defending cow slaughter- Bhupender Yadav

After being at the receiving end from Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad on the issue of reservations, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has cornered the former Bihar CM for his comments defending cow slaughter. While Prasad struggles to distance himself from his comments after the Dadri incident that even Hindus ate beef, the BJP has upped the ante on the issue. Bhupender Yadav, BJP Rajya Sabha MP and party's chief strategist for Bihar polls, tells Archis Mohan that Prasad is trying to cause disaffection among people by defending cow slaughter.

Bihar Election - Lalu Prasad provoking disaffection by defending cow slaughter- Bhupender Yadav

Why is the BJP increasingly looking nervous as the Bihar elections draw near?
It isn't the BJP but the 'grand alliance' that is nervous. It shows in their strategy which is beset with confusion. At times they talk of development and in the same breath of caste.

But hasn't the controversy over reservations and discontent within BJP ranks after ticket distribution hurting the BJP?
Our stand on reservation is clear. The BJP is not in favour of any review of the current policy of reservation. The discontent is not in the BJP but among parties opposed to us. The Samajwadi Party, for instance, broke away from the 'grand alliance'.

The BJP has outdone Bihar CM Nitish Kumar in announcing poll sops by promising scootys and laptops to students. Isn't it the kind of competitive populism that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has always stood against?
Prime Minister Modi has already put in motion infrastructure development in Bihar under the Rs 1.65 lakh crore package for the state. Scootys and laptops to encourage education for girl students, for which Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad did little, should be appreciated in this context and not viewed as poll sops.

Let alone development, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad couldn't even deliver their promise of social justice in 25-years of their rule. Governance suffered after Kumar parted ways with the BJP. You should ask Lalu ji what kind of development he is promising to the people of the state. His son (Tejaswi) has declared in his affidavit that he is only ninth pass but has assets worth nearly a crore.

How do you think the controversy over the Dadri incident will impact Bihar polls?
Our party stands for harmony among different castes and communities based on respect for each others' beliefs and sentiments, including on cow slaughter. Lalu Prasad Yadav is trying to provoke disaffection among communities. It is unfortunate for a Yadav to have said what he did by defending cow slaughter.

But hasn't the Dadri incident affected the international image of the PM and his government at a time when he is seeking foreign investments for 'Make in India?
It is erroneous to connect an issue that has to do with people's sentiments with the international image of the Prime Minister or our government.

Article Source:  Business Standard

Bihar Election : Grand Alliance going all out to checkmate BJP

The 'Grand Alliance' of JD(U), RJD and Congress in Bihar is making an all-out attempt to checkmate the BJP using its multiple star campaigners -- Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. While the Congress leaders will be holding ten odd rallies between them, the bulk of the campaigning will be done by the RJD chief and the Bihar chief minister. Lalu and Nitish are slated to visit each of the 243 constituencies' at least once during the campaign. The alliance is also slated to unveil a common programme (manifesto) of the alliance in the next few days.

Bihar Elections: The alliance may have a joint campaign committee but the Congress contesting only on 40 seats realizes that it is a junior partner in the alliance. Campaign managers said that effort was to ensure that all assembly seats were covered since they have the benefit of having several leaders unlike the BJP which is banking solely on PM Narendra Modi (likely to address about 20 rallies). During the 2014 polls, when Lalu Yadav and Nitish contested separately it was challenging for them to cover all constituencies singlehandedly.

Bihar Election : Grand Alliance going all out to checkmate BJP

Sources said that a joint rally of all three party leaders could take place in the fourth and fifth phase of the polls possibly in Seemanchal. For now, Congress President Sonia Gandhi has already visited Bihar last week and is scheduled to address two rallies again on October 17. Rahul Gandhi separately will visit the state on October 7 and then on 26.

Even as the BJP led alliance has released its manifesto, the Grand alliance has decided to unveil a "common programme" which would charter out its commitments should it come to power. Figuring among the top priorities of the alliance, disclosed a leader are issues like tacking employment, student scholarships, women empowerment.

Although the BJP is claiming that there are faultlines within the "united" alliance due to which Lalu Yadav and Sonia Gandhi are unlikely to be seen sharing a stage, alliance election managers say otherwise. "Our priority is not a display of being united but rather to keep out the BJP. For the first time in the state, a sitting chief minister released the list of candidates of all three alliance partners contesting elections. That is unity, we do not need a certificate from the BJP to prove that are alliance is intact," said a senior alliance leader.

Article Source: Business Standard

Bihar Election: Sushil Modi says NDA will ban cow slaughter in Bihar if it wins.

Latching on to the RJD supremo Lalu Prasad's controversial remarks that the 'Hindus too eat beef', senior BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi on Monday promised to frame a legislation to ban cow slaughter in the state, if NDA comes to power in Bihar elections.

"The forthcoming Assembly polls in Bihar is going to be a direct contest between those, who justify beef eating and those seeking effective ban on cow slaughter....We, on our part, promise to frame an effective legislation to totally ban cow slaughter in the state if the NDA comes to power," he said in a statement.

Such a stringent law banning cow slaughter in Bihar, would be framed in line of legislations in place in states such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and Gujarat among others, Sushil Modi said, adding that though Bihar had a law banning slaughter of cows below 14 years of age, the same had not been effectively implemented by successive governments.

Bihar Election: Sushil Modi says NDA will ban cow slaughter in Bihar if it wins.

In Bihar, cows of tender age were being slaughtered despite having legislation against it, he claimed, adding that the NDA government would prevent cow slaughter and take steps for protection of the sacred animal in order to ensure that those rearing cows become prosperous.

The senior BJP leader claimed that thousands of animals used to be brought to Sonepur fair by trains from across the country and transported to Assam and other North-East states before being transported across the border for slaughter, which Sushil Modi said, he had banned when he was a minister.

The NDA government at the Centre has also saved lives of lakhs of cows by preventing smuggling of animals to neighbouring country, the former deputy chief minister said.

He expressed dismay at the RJD supremo sticking to his remarks that the 'Hindus too eat beef' and questioned Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the Congress President Sonia Gandhi's stony silence on Prasad's controversial remarks.

In an apparent bid to drag the chief minister in the raging controversy over the RJD supremo's remarks, the senior BJP leader claimed that Kumar had insulted crores of Hindus by keeping mum on the issue.

Article Source: Business Standard

Bihar Election: The legacy of the Nitish Kumar administration

In 2005, just when Nitish Kumar had taken over as chief minister, one of his MLAs died of a heart attack. Being an MLA, he had to be given a state funeral with a five-gun salute. The body lay in state, awaiting the salute. Five guns were required to fire in the air. The first round went off perfectly. But in the second round, three rifles jammed and merely responded with an empty 'click' when fired. Policemen scurried to get rifles that would work. In the third and fourth round, only two rifles fired. In the fifth round, all the rifles jammed so bystanders saw, rather than heard, the rifles firing. Nitish was mortified. But that was what he had inherited: jammed guns and Remington typewriters. Little wonder then when he was asked what his top three priorities for the state were, he said: "Governance, governance, governance".

NItish Kumar

Bihar Election: For five years, Nitish worked tirelessly to devise a new strategy for Bihar that had slid on all metrics during the rule of Lalu Prasad and family for the previous 15 years. Some ideas were innovative, some just common sense. "The division of Bihar had cost us all the mining and mineral activity: everything had gone to Jharkhand. We had no industry. All we had was agriculture, tourism… and our human resource, the people of Bihar. So education was the only way to develop the state," said a bureaucrat closely associated with the state's educational reform.

Apart from law and order, if agri-produce was to be brought to the market, better and more roads were necessary. "In the first phase (2005-09), we built schools, roads, did health sector reforms. We had planned in the second phase to work on improving the quality of education, deepening power sector reforms, concentrating on IT," said a bureaucrat.

The 2009 Lok Sabha elections reaffirmed that governance was a slogan that still worked and was not suborned by caste. Nitish led the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to victory in 32 of the state's 40 Lok Sabha seats in 2009 and 206 of the 243 Assembly seats in 2010. Between 2010 and 2014, Bihar worked on improving the girl child's access to education: the distribution of bicycles was hugely popular, first only for girls and then for the entire school-going population. Recruitment of teachers by the panchayat would lead to its own set of problems: but at that time, everything seemed to be going swimmingly.

Then disaster struck. Narendra Modi was made chief of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s campaign committee and it was clear that he would be the BJP's prime ministerial candidate in the 2014 general elections. Although the Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), tried to keep a distance from the happenings within the BJP, it was clear that as an alliance partner, it would inevitably be affected. The denouement came when Modi came to Bihar for a meeting of the national executive, a dinner was organised but Nitish sent a message that Modi (and Varun Gandhi) were not invited. Nitish's reason was the advertisements sponsored by the BJP said Muslims in Gujarat were better off than in other states (ads did not name Bihar). The BJP rejected this condition and, finally, Nitish snapped ties with the BJP.

The 2014 election results were cataclysmic for the JD(U). It got two seats out of 40. Nitish thought he could shrug the BJP and the people of Bihar would still vote for him because of his good governance. But the verdict was the opposite. Worse, everywhere else in India, regional leaders - from Mamata Banerjee to Naveen Patnaik - did not lose the election; only Nitish did. "He couldn't understand. He had done so much for people. Everyone told him: 'The thinking is different in Lok Sabha elections and different in Vidhan Sabha elections. For the Lok Sabha, people might vote for Modi but in state elections, they will vote for you'. But it was as if a dam had broken," said a bureaucrat associated with that phase of reforms.

In panic, Nitish decided to resort to the lowest common multiple of Bihar politics: caste. He quit the chief ministership, installed a Dalit Musahar, Jitan Ram Manjhi, as CM, and held out a hand to oldest foes Prasad and the Congress and created a caste alliance that, arithmetically at least, looked invincible. In the Lok Sabha election, the aggregate vote share of these parties had crossed 41 per cent. But there was widespread dismay among people. Nitish could not - and did not - say the alliance was only tactical. Because of his prison term in the fodder scam conviction, Lalu had been outlawed from contesting elections forever. But the anti-Yadav castes which had figured prominently in Nitish's earlier coalition could only see empowerment of the Yadavs who had been out of the power loop for 10 years and were yearning to return. There is a tiny section of the Yadavs that believes Lalu's greatest weakness is the promotion of his own family (two of his sons are contesting this election) and that he needs to be stopped. Among this lot is Pappu Yadav who is contesting from Kosi against Lalu's parivarvaad. But most Yadavs still consider Lalu their unquestioned leader.

Moreover, it was not just the Yadavs that Lalu was bringing to the table - it was also the Muslims. Although a section of Muslims had voted for Nitish even when he was with the BJP, with Lalu, there was a reason to vote en bloc against the BJP. However, the extremely backward classes (EBCs) and the poorest among Dalits were unconvinced. Depending on the region, it was the Yadavs and the upper caste Bhumihars that were their greatest oppressors. Now, not only was Nitish bringing that very caste, Yadav, into the alliance but had already favoured Bhumihars by appointing Bhumihar officers as his most trusted bureaucrats. So when it came to a crunch, where would EBCs go for justice if the Nitish-Lalu combine came to power? Worse followed even as they were mulling this: Nitish realised Jitan Ram Manjhi wasn't making the cut in governance. So he sacked him and re-appointed himself as CM. Humiliated, Manjhi went to the BJP which welcomed him with open arms. During this period, there was virtually no governance initiative. "The new bridge over the Ganga is almost ready. But Nitish is delaying inaugurating it because he doesn't want Manjhi to get the credit," say BJP leaders.

But away from the noise of the election, there is acceptance that Nitish put in motion a process - admittedly from a very low base - that put Bihar on a definite trajectory. "Even among the developed states, there is no government that spends 24 per cent of its Budget on education - we do. There is now a school within one kilometre of every village. The school is the hub of all activity. We concede that in Bihar, we cannot dream of big industry - land is too difficult to acquire. But we can promote tourism; we can promote IT and most of all, education… You will not see the results of this path of development immediately. But in the future, not only literacy, but the quality of literacy, too, will improve," says a bureaucrat.

For now, Nitish is fighting back grimly but is convinced that whatever the hue of the government, his is the road that it will have to take.

Article Source: Business Standard

Bihar Elections: BJP trying to communalise atmosphere in Bihar: Nitish, Lalu

Bihar Elections: Bihar's Grand Alliance leaders--Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and RJD Chief Lalu Prasad--today accused BJP of trying to "communalise" the atmosphere in the poll-bound state, alleging that the party is in panic fearing "defeat."

Kumar said the saffron party has neither any 'leader' nor any 'policy and intention' to show the people and therefore it is trying to communalise the situation.  "BJP in panic--without neta, niti & niyat in Bihar & facing defeat they're brazenly attempting to communalise & mask it with Modi's rhetorics," Kumar said in a tweet.

Bihar Elections: BJP trying to communalise atmosphere in Bihar: Nitish, Lalu

Hitting out at BJP, Prasad, a former Bihar Chief Minister, said, "These people of rumour party seeing a sure defeat has no agenda and that's why they have fallen on their tested communal agenda."

Targeting BJP President Amit Shah, he asked him "where is the developmental agenda of BJP?"

Calling Shah as "Jumla babu", the RJD supremo said people of Bihar were well aware of "your tucha kartoot (mean activities)."

The comments by the two leaders came against the backdrop of the lynching of a man in Bishada village of Uttar Pradesh recently following rumours that the family had consumed and stored beef.

Addressing a public meeting, Kumar asked people to remain 'alert' as there would be attempts to create tension among communities to rake up emotion before the five-phase Assembly polls beginning October 12.

"You (people) have to maintain peace and harmony at any cost. It is their (BJP's) design to provoke you in order to reap (political) dividends," the senior JD(U) leader said.

Terming the BJP-led NDA a divided house, Kumar said a leader of one NDA constituent is making public statement against the leader of another partner.

He said former IAS officer R K Singh had joined BJP during Lok Sabha polls and now he is saying the party has given tickets to wrong candidates. "This is the situation of BJP."

Talking about senior BJP leaders being sidelined in the party, the chief minister said, "Shatrughan Sinha, whom we popularly know as Bihari Babu, has been sidelined in the party. There was a day when a large number of crowd used to come in the name of Sinha but BJP leaders took benefit of the opportunity and addressed the public meetings. But now he has been sidelined."

Late Kailashpati Mishra was founder member of the BJP but his daughter-in-law was denied ticket by the party after his demise, Kumar said, adding that former health minister Chandra Mohan Rai had faced the same fate.

Article Source: Business Standard

Bihar Elections: Ruling alliance plans joint campaign

The anti-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance plans to use its multiple star campaigners extensively to check its major opponent in Bihar Elections.

Nitish Kumar, Lalu Pradad, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi will all be campaigning extensively for the alliance of the Janata Dal, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress. While the Congress leaders will be holding 10-odd rallies between themselves, the bulk of the campaigning will be done by the RJD chief and the Bihar chief minister. Lalu and Nitish are slated to visit each of the 243 constituencies' at least once.

Bihar Elections- Ruling alliance plans joint campaign

The alliance is also slated to unveil a common programme (manifesto) in the next few days. Alliance campaign managers said the effort was to ensure that all assembly seats were covered, since they have the benefit of having several leaders, while the BJP was banking heavily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi (likely to address about 20 rallies). During the 2014 polls, when Prasad and Kumar contested separately it was challenging for them to cover all the constituencies.

Sources said a joint rally of all three party leaders could take place in the fourth and fifth phase of the polls, possibly in Seemanchal.

Congress chief Sonia Gandhi visited Bihar last week and is scheduled to address two rallies on October 17. Rahul Gandhi will visit the state on October 7 and October 26.

The BJP-led alliance has issued a manifesto of what it would do if elected to govern. Its opposing alliance is to issue a "common programme" of commitments. Top priorities, disclosed a leader, are employment, student scholarships and women empowerment.

Article Source: Business Standard

Bihar Elections: Amit Shah, Nitin Gadkari to address rallies today

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president Amit Shah and Union Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari will be addressing several rallies in poll bound Bihar election today.

Shah will first be addressing a public meeting at Baijnathpur High school ground in Rosera, after which he will be addressing a party workers meet.

Bihar Elections: Amit Shah, Nitin Gadkari to address rallies today

Shah will then fly to Bhagalpur to address a rally at Bazaar Samiti complex then he will be addressing a public meeting at Pragati maidan Pirpainit.

Gadkari will also be addressing several public rallies in Nabinagar, Aurangabad and Nokha near Rohtas. Gadkari will then address public meets at Dinara, Rohtas and Jagdispur in Bhojpur.

Elections in Bihar will begin from October 12. They will be held in five phases.

The results will be declared on November 8.

Article Source : Business Standard

Bihar Elections: FIRs against Amit Shah, Lalu Prasad for hate speeches in Bihar

FIRs were lodged against Bharatiya Janata Party president Amit Shah and Rashtriya Janata Dal supremoLalu Prasad Yadav following hate speeches against each other during their Bihar election.

 The action was taken after getting permission from the Election Commission.

Bihar Elections: FIRs against Amit Shah, Lalu Prasad for hate speeches in Bihar

An FIR was filed against Shah in Singhaul out post in Begusarai district, while two FIRs were lodged against Lalu Prasad in connection with use of abusive language.

Shah had earlier, while addressing a rally in Begusarai, referred to Lalu's conviction in a fodder scam case, alleging that Bihar, which had a glorious past, has today attained a bad name due to 'chara-chor' Lalu.

Lalu hit back at Shah a day later, asking how a "narbhakshi" (man-eater) of Gujarat riots was now roaming around in Bihar.

Article Source: Business Standard

Bihar Elections: Notification for 4th phase to be issued today

Notification for the fourth phase of the Bihar election will be issued on Wednesday and the last day for filing of nomination papers is the till October 14th. Voting for the fourth phase will be held on the November 1st in 55 constituencies in 7 districts of the state.

Bihar Elections Notification for 4th phase to be issued today

Scrutiny will take place the next day, and candidates can withdraw their nomination paper till the October 17th. Meanwhile, 351 candidates have so far filled nomination for the third phase of elections to be held on October 28th. Thursday is the last day of filling of nomination paper for this phase.

Polls to the 243-member Assembly will be held in five phases from October 12th to September 5th. Counting will be held on 8th November.

Article Source: Business Standard

Bihar Elections: Manjhi claims he is 'most popular' NDA campaigner

Calling himself the "most popular campaigner" among the BJP's allies in Bihar elections, mahadalit leader Jitan Ram Manjhi today asserted his party's strike rate will be better than all other NDA constituents.

He said the BJP-led alliance should have given him more seats as people "everywhere want to see me".

Former Bihar Chief Minister and HAM (S) chief Jitan Ram Manjhi Picture by PTI File photo

With the polls being seen a close contest between the NDA and the grand alliance of JD(U)-RJD-Congress, Manjhi said his party would have won over 35 seats if it was given 40 to contest and only time will tell if the BJP-led coalition would regret the decision of allotting his Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) only 21 seats.

Manjhi claimed such is his popularity among the poor that LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan, another prominent dalit leader of Bihar, whose clout among the crucial Scheduled Castes voters he had questioned some time back, had to "request" him to address an election meeting by telephone in Alauli, where his brother and state LJP chief Pashupati Paras is in the fray. In an interview to PTI during his hectic campaign, which he noted was more for allies than his own party, the former chief minister and HAM(S) leader claimed the grand alliance had fragmented like a "piece of broken glass" and the NDA will get two-thirds majority in the election in which "we are facing no challenge".

"My strike rate will be better than any other party, including BJP. The reason is that there is a strong sentiment in my support among the poor for the work I had started and which was stopped by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Now they want to avenge it. They (BJP) should have sacrificed more seats, but I accepted this offer (21 seats) because I had already promised them unconditional support.

"Now I am also campaigning for them because of my appeal. Their own leaders tell me that 'if you go to all 243 seats and merely show your face we will benefit'. So I ask them why did not you think so while giving me seats and today you are pestering me. After all, I have to campaign for my own party and other allies too," Manjhi said. Asked if he saw himself as the most popular NDA leader except for top BJP guns like Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he said, "Of course....People want to see my face everywhere." Out of the 40-45 rallies he has already addressed, only 10-12 was for his party's nominees, he noted.

"Big leaders are coming, so are actors. As far as I am concerned there is a lot of demand for me among the poor, which even they (BJP and allies) acknowledge," he said.

Asked if the NDA will regret giving him only 21 seats as many are predicting a close race between the two rival combinations, he said, "Only time will tell. As of now, we are working to win as many seats as possible.

Article Source: Business Standard

Bihar Elections: 'Clean' candidates achieve only 4%-8% success.

If the past two elections are any indication, candidates for the forthcoming Bihar Election 2015 are likely to have a string of “heinous” cases against them in court: murder, extortion, kidnapping, robbery and dacoity and crimes against women, including rape.

Bihar Elections: 'Clean' candidates achieve only 4%-8% success.

All political parties–there are no exceptions–pick candidates with serious criminal charges. Why they do that is revealed by an India Spend analysis of self-declared affidavits: Only 8% of candidates without criminal cases against them won in 2005. In 2010, only 4% did. While the success rate of tainted candidates in both 2005 and 2010 was 23% and 12% respectively.

While 274 (14%) of 2,029 candidates with “heinous” charges were given tickets in 2005, the figure rose to 600 (20%) of 3,058 candidates in 2010. In 2005, these 274 candidates had in total 499 murder charges, 81 extortion cases and 102 kidnapping charges. In 2010, the 600 candidates with heinous cases had charges that included 919 murder charges, 207 extortion cases and 151 kidnapping charges.

Fielding candidates with criminal cases is not a new practice among Indian political parties, but during the 2010 elections, 66 constituencies in Bihar had more than four candidates with “heinous” cases against them contesting the Bihar elections 2015. There were 20 constituencies where six and more candidates contested the elections with “heinous” cases pending against them.

Janata Dal (United) leads the pack, but all parties guilty

In 2010, 34% of JD (U) candidates, 33% of LJP, 26% of BJP and 18% of Congress candidates told the Election Commission of India that they had cases involving crimes of a “heinous” nature pending against them.

Source: Self-sworn affidavits submitted by contesting candidates to ECI, Bihar Chief Electoral Officer 1, 2. View raw data here. Note: Heinous cases are those involving offences related to murder, extortion, kidnapping, robbery and dacoity, and crimes against women & children, including rape. If convicted for these offences, the punishment ranges from 7 years to life imprisonment or the death sentence.

While the issue of criminalisation in politics comes up during every election, what makes the issue more serious in the context of Bihar is the nature of crimes that the candidates have been facing.

In 2005, the BJP gave tickets to 26 candidates who declared 35 charges of murder, 16 of extortion, 7 of kidnapping, and five counts of robbery and dacoity.

Source: Self-sworn affidavits submitted by contesting candidates to ECI, Bihar Chief Electoral Officer 1, 2. View raw data here.

It became worse in 2010.

As many as 43 candidates of the JD(U), the party headed by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, had 79 charges of murder, 20 of extortion, 11 of kidnapping, while 42 Congress candidates had 61 murder-related offences. The BJP gave tickets to 25 candidates who declared 47 murder charges, 12 extortion, 13 kidnapping and 2 cases of rape.

Source: Self-sworn affidavits submitted by contesting candidates to ECI, Bihar Chief Electoral Officer 1, 2. View raw data here.

Parties clearly choose candidates with the most serious charges

Of 2,029 candidates who contested the 2005 Bihar elections, 1,539 candidates were “clean”; they declared they did not have any criminal cases against them.

Of the remaining 490, in addition to 274 candidates facing “heinous” cases, 113 were facing “very serious” cases, 36 candidates were facing cases where, if convicted, the maximum punishment would range between two to five years and 67 candidates were facing cases with a maximum punishment of less than two years.

These figures point to the fact that the degree of taint also matters for political parties.

Of the candidates facing criminal cases, 56% (274 of 490) faced “heinous” cases and 23% (113 of 490) faced “very serious” charges.

Parties chose candidates facing grievous charges (for which the maximum punishment if convicted is more 5 years and can be up to life imprisonment or death sentence) than the ones that had lesser punishments, if convicted.

Similarly, during the 2010 Bihar elections, of the 1,207 candidates with pending criminal cases, 50% (600 of 1,207) had heinous cases and another 28% (340 of 1,207) had “very serious” cases pending against them.

So, parties prefer to give tickets to candidates who have “heinous” and “very serious” charges pending against them.

Only 8% of clean candidates won in 2005; 4% in 2010

It’s clear why parties chose candidates with criminal records.

Of the 1,539 “clean” candidates who contested the 2005 assembly elections in Bihar, only 126 (8%) were elected; 22% of candidates with “heinous” cases won–61 of 274.

Of 113 candidates facing “very serious” charges (including rioting, cheating and forgery), 23 (20%) made it to the assembly. This means candidates with “heinous” and “very serious” charges had around three times better chances of winning elections in Bihar than “clean” candidates.

The success rate of “clean” candidates worsened during the 2010 elections–no more than 4% (82 of 1,851) won.

The success rate for candidates facing “heinous charges” was 11% and for candidates with “very serious” cases 12%, again three times better chances of victory than candidates with no criminal records.

Source: Self-sworn affidavits submitted by contesting candidates to ECI, Bihar Chief Electoral Officer 1, 2. View raw data here.

Article Source: Business Standard

Bihar elections: Where is the BJP's famed cohesion?

Bihar elections: Where is the BJP's famed cohesion?

The lack of cohesion in ticket distribution is one of three key variables that could upset the BJP's apple cart in Bihar

It was an exercise aimed at giving the impression of a cohesive unit at work. When Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad Yadav’s son Tejaswi went to address an election rally at Raghopur in Bihar’s Vaishali district, he ensured that the venue had flags of all three parties of the coalition he is representing. He reportedly thanked the leaders of the Congress, the RJD and the Janata Dal (United) for choosing him as the coalition’s nominee from the constituency. A leading English daily has reported that even the audio clip that was played at the venue had slogans supporting leaders from all the coalition partners.

Tejaswi could have avoided mentioning leaders of his coalition partners, given that Raghopur is considered a RJD bastion. Lalu Prasad himself has represented this constituency twice. And former chief minister Rabri Devi too won the seat in 2005. But the fact that Tejaswi chose to project himself as the candidate of the “grand alliance” even in his home turf shows that he and other leaders of his party seem to be showing commitment to the alliance. Contrary to expectations, the RJD and the JD (U), two of the major parties of the three-party alliance, handled seat sharing arrangement smoothly. Even the process of selection of candidates passed off without any major hiccup.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) unit in the state, on the other hand, is giving the impression of a divided house. Recent statements of three members of Parliament and one sitting member of the state Legislative Assembly indicate that all is not well within the party. Protests have come from within about the selection of candidates and also about applying different rules while fielding relatives of party leaders. Even the BJP’s coalition partners have expressed disappointment at the seat sharing arrangement among allies.

The cohesion, or lack of it, both in letter and spirit, is going to be one of the three key variables that will have a bearing on the eventual outcome of the elections.

The second, and most important, variable is whether there is a consolidation of other backward classes (OBCs) votes or not. Right after the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief’s statement hinting at a review of the reservation policy, the RJD and the JD (U) have left no stone unturned to project the BJP as a party that is against the interests of the OBCs. In fact, Lalu Prasad has on social media aggressively criticised the RSS chief’s statement. The choice of the issue as well as the medium to spread the message seems to be intended to reach out to the OBCs, especially the younger lot. A large section of the OBCs had voted for the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Lalu Prasad’s aggressive espousal of what has come to be known as Mandal 2 is aimed at reversing that trend.

The third variable in the forthcoming elections is going to be whether Asaduddin Owaisi of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is able to split the Muslim votes or not. AIMIM is contesting in 24 assembly seats in Muslim-dominated Seemanchal region. The BJP had a lacklustre performance in this region even in the wave elections last year. If Owaisi is able to split votes of the minority community and there is counter-polarisation of Hindu votes, the region and its adjoining areas may well see a different result this time.

Article Source: Business Standard