Ever since the Election Commission on September 9 announced that election to Bihar’s 243 Assembly seats would take place over five phases starting October 12, 2015 the state, gripped by an ‘election fever’, has been a hotbed of political permutations and combinations
The Land of Buddha, whose mandate will be known on November 8, is also a major battleground for national politics. Historically, the state has boasted being home to the first President of India, Rajendra Prasad, besides revolutionary leaders like Jayaprakash Narayan.
Here are a few things to know about the hotting political scene in Bihar Polls 2015:
- Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar welcomes Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his arrival in Patna on August 18, 2015.
Root of the present political crisis
Even apart from the preparation for the state election, Bihar has been in the midst of a political tension because of differences between the ruling party and a rebel faction that has now become a breakaway party.
Months before the Assembly elections, Jitan Ram Manjhi, who had been installed as chief minister less than a year earlier, was asked to make way for party senior and former CM Nitish Kumar. JD(U) leader Kumar, who had quit office after his party fared poorly in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014, now wanted to come back to power.
But Manjhi showed reluctance to vacate the CM’s chair and was expelled from the party. This led to a political crisis and the state’s Governor asked Manjhi to seek a vote of confidence on February 20. The Bharatiya Janata Party, which had earlier broken away from its alliance with JD(U), announced it would support Manjhi. But Manjhi still failed to shore up enough support to reach the magical figure of 122 members required to retain power.
The birth of the ‘Grand Alliance’
When Kumar re-assumed the role of Bihar’s CM, and BJP’s support to Manjhi made it clear that the party could prove a challenger to JD(U) in the coming Assembly elections, several parties outside of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) joined hands to form a formidable grouping.
Since sweeping the Lok Sabha elections and forming a majority government at the Centre, the BJP-led NDA, under the leadership of Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah, had become all the more strong across India. Barring a debacle in Delhi, where it got an unexpected drubbing from the Aam Aadmi Party, NDA had since convincingly swept almost every single election at every level.
It was to stop this NDA juggernaut that the so-called ‘Grand Alliance’ was formed. The members were the Sharad Yadav-led JD(U), Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP), H D Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular), Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal and the Chandra Shekhar-founded Samajwadi Janata Party (Rashtriya).
Discord in the ‘Grand Alliance’
Things, however, did not remain rosy among all constituents of the Janata Parivar after a seat-sharing formula for the Assembly elections was announced. Initially, the alliance decided that JD(U) and RJD would contest on 100 seats each, and the Congress on 40. There also was the plan to offer the remaining three seats to Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
But NCP rebuffed this seat-sharing formula and decided to go it alone on all 243 seats. Besides, also miffed over the arrangement was the Samajwadi Party, which decided to opt out of the alliance. Though Lalu Prasad tried to cajole SP’s Mulayam Singh Yadav by offering the three seats refused by NCP and two of RJD’s own, Yadav eventually walked out of the alliance, citing the grouping’s alleged closeness to the Congress party.
Some smoke, some fire in the NDA camp, too
Even the BJP-led NDA has not been without differences so far. No sooner had the alliance arrived at a seat-sharing plan than a bickering began in the camp. The members of this alliance apart from BJP are Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), the Upendra Kushwaha-led Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) and Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM). While BJP is contesting on 160 of the 243 seats, LJP has been given 40, RLSP 23 and late entrant HAM 20.
On reports that LJP was upset with BJP over sharing of seats, party leader and Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan’s son Chirag Paswan on September 15 said at an especially convened press conference: “There is no smoke without fire... We were not angry but shocked. We were taken aback because the formula agreed upon during the negotiations was different. We just want the same parameters to be applied in our case.”
Paswan junior conveyed the message that all was not well within the NDA camp. But after BJP chief Amit Shah promised that LJP’s concerns would be addressed, it seemed largely given that the coalition would not fall apart. He denied the reports that his party was upset with the number of seats Manjhi’s party had walked away with.
“Manjhi is a prominent leader and he has a key role in Bihar elections. Manjhi, Kushwaha and we are all the same family,” Chirag Paswan said. The LJP leader, though, also admitted to giving a list of leaders from Manjhi’s party against whom he and his party had reservations.
Irony of the elections and a CM vs PM battle
Bihar is known to be one of the poorest states in India. What people in the state have been looking for is development. The common man today is struggling to survive in the face of rising costs, poverty and corruption.
With that in mind, JD(U) earlier centred its campaign on the issues of development, good governance and law-and-order situation in Bihar. The party looked to target people from the lowest strata of society, the Mahadalits, besides the backward castes that make a large chunk of the state’s voters.
However, the state elections have in the run-up turned into a turf battle between Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And, the exchange of bitter verbal blows between them is only intensifying as the elections approach.
Earlier, Kumar criticised Modi and his government over several issues and alleged the latter did not keep his promise of giving Bihar the status of a special state. Modi, getting back with a special package of Rs 1.25 lakh crore for the state, besides an additional Rs 40,000 crore announced at a government function in Arrah, kicked up a storm with his ‘DNA’remark. Questioning the timing of the bounty, Kumar termed this package a trick to lure voters.
On July 25, Modi attacked Kumar saying there seemed “some problem with Nitish Kumar’s DNA”, as he frequently changed his political loyalty. Kumar lashed out at Modi for this remark and termed it an insult of the people of his state. JD(U) and RJD asked the PM to take his words back and launched a ‘Shabd Wapasi’ campaign. The JD(U) government reportedly collected around 1.5 million samples of nails and hair of people from Bihar and sent those to Modi.
According to sources, the irony of this election is that neither of the alliances is talking about the real issues concerning the lives of the common man of Bihar, such as education, electricity and employment. Many say that the polls are increasingly turning into a CM vs PM war, where both have their own high stakes.
Pollsters’ call
According to a pre-poll survey conducted by Zee media group, the BJP-led NDA could win a majority in the Bihar Assembly elections, a crucial test for the Narendra Modi government’s popularity 18 months after talking charge at the Centre.
The survey showed NDA winning 140 of the 243 seats. On the other hand, the grand alliance might win only 70 seats. However, the survey also showed that there could be a tight contest on the remaining 33 seats and that it was difficult to predict the winner on those.
The vote percentage factor
One of the most important parts of the Zee survey was that it showed 41.2 per cent of the state’s Muslims might vote for NDA, while the rest would favour the grand alliance. NDA could win 52.6 per cent of the Hindu votes, while 40.8 per cent Hindus would likely opt for the grand alliance. Among the Yadav community voters, considered crucial in Bihar, 47.8 per cent were expected to vote for NDA, and 47.5 per cent for the grand alliance.
Grand alliance’s take on pre-poll survey
Asked about JD(U)’s prospects in the light of the pre-poll survey, a party leader who did not wish to be named told Business Standard: “See, these surveys do not reach a wider sample to gauge a more inclusive view. So it is not right to accord much credence to them at this point. I doubt their methodology of conducting surveys. To their claim that NDA is winning this election, I would say it is too early to say. The true picture will be known on November 8.”
Article Source: Business Standard
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